极大验后估计及其在扩建网中的应用   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

覃辉 《测绘学报》1995,24(2):21-30

本文基于未知参数具有先验正态分布的广义Ｇ－Ｍ模型，推导了未知参数和方差因子的极大验后估计公式，证明了未知和的极大验后估计是无偏、有效估计量，方差因子的极大验后估计有偏，并推导了方差因子的边缘极大验后估计，证明了它的无偏及有效性，作为应用，本文最后证明了扩建网极大验后平差成果等于新旧网整体平差成果。  相似文献   

构造应力场研究的新进展   总被引：22，自引：0，他引：22  

万天丰 《地学前缘》1995,2(2):226-235

本文阐明构造应力（主应力与剪应力）方向的研究方法以及最新研究成果，指出全球各地区在某一时期的应力方向可以是各不相同的，同一地区在不同地质时期内的构造应力方向也是截然不同的，并且应力方向的转变周期也不相等。在概述了应力大小的研究方法之后，作者介绍了构造应力大小研究中的两个新成果：（１）构造应力主要集中在岩石圈内，（２）构造应力从板块边缘向内部具有明显的衰减趋势。至于构造应力积累时间，一般认为是ｎ×１０￣７年的缓慢过程，而应力释放时间则为ｎ×１０￣６年的过程，是一种灾变性、较快的流变过程。构造应力场数学模拟方法已经比较成熟，构造应力的起源问题则为当今构造地质学的前沿性课题之一，对此本文较客观地进行了探讨。  相似文献   

爪哇海末次冰盛期以来的季风与穿越流活动记录          下载免费PDF全文

丁旋  方念乔  F.Guichard  F.Bassinot 《第四纪研究》2008,28(3):465-471

文章通过SHI9034岩芯氧同位素曲线、AMS¹⁴C测年、浮游有孔虫组合及其所反映的温盐变化特点,并与爪哇海北部的SHI9006岩芯对比研究,获得如下认识:末次冰期21～15kaB.P.阶段,爪哇海区东南季风强而西北季风微弱,气候冷干,混合层薄,生物生产力高;15～10kaB.P.和10～7kaB.P.阶段由于海平面迅速上升,望加锡海峡和龙目海峡通道变宽,出现较强的表层穿越流活动;早全新世东南与西北季风都有增强,说明当时研究区气候有着更强的季节性;7～3kaB.P.阶段,爪哇海北部的穿越流主要在温跃层水中传输,到达爪哇上升流区时,上升至表层,使得混合层增厚,同时也抑制了上升流活动;约3kaB.P.以来,研究区穿越流活动表现与现代相近的性质,主要在温跃层水中传输。  相似文献   

Response of Plant Growth and Biomass Accumulation to Short-term Experimental Warming in a Highland Barley System of the Tibet     

FU Gang  SUN Wei  LI Shaowei  ZHONG Zhiming 《资源与生态学报(英文版)》2018,9(2):203-208

Highland barley is an important staple food in the Tibet, and the Tibetan Plateau is experiencing obvious climatic warming. However, few studies have examined the warming effects on highland barley growth and biomass allocation under conditions of controlled experimental warming. This limits our ability to predict how highland barley will change as the climate changes in the future. An experiment of field warming at two magnitudes was performed in a highland barley system of the Tibet beginning in late May, 2014. Infrared heaters were used to increase soil temperature. At the end of the warming experiment (September 14, 2014), plant growth parameters (plant height, basal diameter, shoot length and leaf number), biomass accumulation parameters (total biomass, root biomass, stem biomass, leaf biomass and spike biomass), and carbon and nitrogen concentration parameters (carbon concentration, nitrogen concentration, the ratio of carbon to nitrogen concentration in root, stem, leaf and spike) were sampled. The low- and high-level experimental warming significantly increased soil temperature by 1.52 and 1.98 °C, respectively. Average soil moisture was significantly decreased by 0.03 m³ m^-3 under the high-level experimental warming, while soil moisture under the low-level experimental warming did not significantly change. The low- and high-level experimental warming did not significantly affect plant growth parameters, biomass accumulation parameters, and carbon and nitrogen concentration parameters. There were also no significant differences of plant growth parameters, biomass accumulation parameters, and carbon and nitrogen concentration parameters between the low- and high-level experimental warming. Our findings suggest that the response of highland barley growth, total and component biomass accumulation, and carbon and nitrogen concentration to warming did not linearly change with warming magnitude in the Tibet.  相似文献   

大连地区ECMWF细网格10 m风场与观测实况对比与检验     

杨景泰  隋玉秀  肖剑  王丽娜  常慧琳  邬晓冬  王岩 《气象与环境学报》2021,37(1):73-81

选取2016年1月至2018年12月ECMWF（简称EC）细网格10 m风资料,与大连地区8个国家气象观测站地面各类实况风速资料进行对比分析,得出EC 10 m风速预报与最大风速最为接近,与极大风速相关性最好,EC 10 m风速对大连地区8站整体预报平均偏大。通过对EC 10 m风速各预报时限资料与其对应的最大风速误差进行统计分析。结果表明：按实况分类,从风速平均误差来看,实况3级与预报最接近,小于3级时预报偏大,大于3级时预报偏小,各风向间的风速误差也比较明显,但比风级间的误差要小一些;平均绝对误差则是2—3级最小。各时限风速平均误差相差不大,基本在0.1—0.3 m·s^-1间,平均绝对误差则随时限延长呈缓慢增大趋势。风速误差具有明显的日变化,表现出白天小、夜间大、午后最小、下半夜最大的特征。风速误差也因测站不同,在不同风级和风向的反应也各不相同。  相似文献   

More intensive summer tropical cyclone near 30°N of East Asia     

《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2017

The present study revealed that a climate regime shift occurred during the 1988–1991 period involving changes in tropical cyclone (TC) intensity (central pressure, maximum sustained wind speed) during the summer near 30°N in East Asia. Climatologically, TC intensity at 110°–125°E near 30°N (over Mainland China) is the weakest at that latitude while the strongest is found at 125°–130°E (over Korea). The TC intensity during the 1991–2015 (91–15) period had strengthened significantly compared to that of the 1965–1988 (65–88) period. The strengthening was due to a significantly lower frequency of TCs that passed through Mainland China during the 91–15 period. This lower frequency of was due to anomalous northeasterlies blown from the anomalous anticyclonic circulation located over continental East Asia and that had strengthened along the coast. Instead, TCs mainly followed a path from eastern regions in the subtropical western North Pacific to Korea and Japan via the East China Sea due to anomalous cyclonic circulations that had strengthened in the western North Pacific. In addition, low vertical wind shear had formed along the mid-latitude region in East Asia and along the main TC track in the 91–15 period, and most regions in the western North Pacific experienced a higher sea surface temperature state during the 91–15 period than in the previous period, indicating that a favorable environment had formed to maintain strong intensities of TCs at the mid–latitudes. The characteristics of TCs at the lower latitudes caused a strong TC intensity at the time of landfall in Korea and a gradual shifting trend of landing location from the western to southern coast in recent years.  相似文献   

Cosmo-SkyMed X-band SAR data for classification of ice-free areas and glacier facies on Potter Peninsula,King George Island Antarctica     

André Medeiros de Andrade  Jorge Arigony-Neto  Ulisses Franz Bremer  Roberto Ferreira Machado Michel  Alice César Fassoni-Andrade  Carlos Ernesto Goncalves Reynaud Schaefer 《国际地球制图》2016,31(7):803-812

The climate change phenomena have been influencing terrestrial and glacial ecosystems around the planet. Maritime Antarctica is especially sensitive to these climate variations and over the last 50 years increasing global air temperatures have caused extensive glacial retreat. The objective of this study is to evaluate the potential use of the SAR technology in monitoring the surface dynamics of the Potter Peninsula, King George Island, maritime Antarctica. An image generated by the SAR satellite COSMO-SkyMed, obtained on 2 February 2011, was used to extract the backscattering values of targets on the surface for further processing and classification, using a supervised statistic classifier of maximum likelihood for the determination of the surface classes. The average backscattering of water bodies presented high similarity, which made its separation unattainable. On the other hand, the surface classes’ bare ice and wet snow over the glacier presented distinct average backscattering values, which allowed an efficient and precise classification using only this parameter. The classification process showed satisfactory results for periglacial environments, presenting high fidelity to the field data.  相似文献   

Maximum theoretical power absorption of connected floating bodies under motion constraints     

《Applied Ocean Research》2016

In this paper, a mathematical model is presented to evaluate the maximum mean power that can be absorbed by a three-dimensional system of connected floating bodies in waves under a weighted global constraint. The constraint imposed on the motion amplitudes of the system can be used to limit the motions of the bodies in order to make sure that the assumption of linear theory for wave–structure interaction remains valid. The absorbed power of a structure can be considered as the difference between excitation and radiated power without consideration of practical power take off. The solutions for the maximum relative capture widths of rigidly connected two rafts have a good agreement with the calculated ones for the same rafts being seen as a single whole structure. Meanwhile, the results of maximum power absorption of two hinged slender rafts in cuboid shape give a good agreement as well with those by using slender-body approximations. Then dynamics of a hinged two rafts are studied and results show how the maximum efficiency is affected by raft width and restricting the motions.  相似文献   

实现Johnson标准UBV系统中的某些问题(英)     

《天文学报》1998,(3)

Odewahn等人发表的CCD标准星区NGC7790的目录是挑选过的非密集星目录．在其证认图上都为单星或仅有相对很暗的近星,但在深度露光图上许多星显出有近星,有的貌似单星但实际上是双星或三重星．本文给出这些（光学）伴星的相对距离和星等差,以便测光工作者挑选标准星时参考使用．另外,比对NGC7790的CCD测光与光电和照相测光,发现Sandage的光电内插照相星等有系统偏离,远大于其测光误差．检验Sandage及其合作者的其 他类似工作可知Johnson等人的工作（M67, M11）,在误差范围内,内插照相值的确和光电值在同一系统．Sandage和Walker的NGC4147,所说的照相光电一致与事实不符．Burbidge和Sandage的NGC7789,在改正了照相值的系统偏离后仍没有全改掉．Sandage和Walker的M92,真正改掉了小的非线性偏离．Sandage和Wildey的NGC7006,由于星暗难测,其照相值不能坚持光电内插的原则,结果不但有明显的颜色方程,而且星等有大的标度误差．CCD测光也应从中吸取经验教训.  相似文献   

南黄海6.1级地震前的地震活动性研究     

刁守中  郭爱香 《地震》1998,18(1):69-74

通过应用最大熵谱法,有序聚类法和地震活动过程,地震相关性的分析,论证了华东地区正处于１９７１年以来的地震活动幕后期,具有发生６级以上地震的可能。１９９６年１１月９日南黄海６．１级地震的发生与这一分析基本相符,作还就地震形势分析的有关科学问题进行了讨论。  相似文献